Match News and Current Form
After a wait of more than seven months since a narrow 23-25 victory over Georgia in Tbilisi, Japan will return to action at the Chichibunomiya Rugby Stadium. That win back in November, which was secured by a stoppage time penalty kick, brought an end to a five-game losing streak, while this will be the first time the Cherry Blossoms have hosted a fixture since last October.
Although Eddie Jones remains their head coach, he will not be directing operations in this game as he is currently serving a four-match suspension for verbally abusing match officials during an under-23 tour of Australia earlier this year. Forwards coach Neil Hatley named the side for this fixture, handing 21-year-old university student Ryunosuke Ito a debut at fly-half while Warner Dearns will captain the team.
Ranked tenth in the world, Italy are back in action for the first time since their joint-best Six Nations Championship (SNC) where they finished fourth and also enjoyed their maiden victory over England. Despite this, the Azzurri missed out on recording three victories in one single SNC campaign for the first time with a surprise defeat in Cardiff on matchday five, their fifth successive loss on the road.
Having to deal with the fallout of winning only in Namibia across their last eight away fixtures (L7), Gonzalo Quesada has selected two uncapped players in his XV for this clash. Alessandro Ortombino at lock and 20-year-old wing Malik Faissal will both play for their country for the first time while flanker Ross Vintcent is on the bench after missing the entire SNC through injury.
Head-to-Head History
Italy have won the last three H2Hs, scoring at least two first-half tries and posting exactly 42 points in the last two meetings, while Japan’s two victories in this fixture came in 2014 and 2018.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Japan covered the main handicap in nine of their 12 games last year.
Japan have recorded two or fewer tries in each of their last five matches.
Italy were trailing at half-time in each of their last three games (W1, L2).
Four of Italy’s five matches this year finished under the main total points handicap.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Dylan Riley scored Japan’s only try in their last match and will start this game at centre. Paolo Garbisi contributed 11 points in the last H2H against Japan and kicked 13 of Italy’s 23 points in their last victory.
Both teams have no new injury concerns in their squads ahead of this clash.
Betting Analysis
Based on their record in the three H2Hs from 2018 onwards, backing Italy to score 2+ first-half tries could be a strong strategy.
Author: Tom Penn