Advantage with well-rested Ireland as they play 'away' to Japan in Australia

Match News and Current Form

Much to the frustration of returning head coach Eddie Jones, Japan lost one of their three Nations Championship home games when it was announced earlier in 2026 that they would be taking on Ireland in Australia to reduce the burden of a schedule that otherwise would have sent them from Sydney to Tokyo to Auckland. Jones went as far as to accuse tournament organisers of favouring global powerhouses Ireland over Japan with the scheduling, showing he has no hesitation to consider speaking his mind as he returns from a board-imposed suspension for abusing match officials on an underage tour of Australia. 

On the field in his absence last week, Japan significantly exceeded expectations. Starting the match as nine-point outsiders, the Brave Blossoms almost kept the Italian favourites to a single digit score as they ended a five-game losing streak against Tier 1 opposition. It was just their fifth win from their last 33 games as betting outsiders (15%), and as they seek to make such upset results more common, Jones has kept his squad turnover to a minimum. Taira Main replaces Kippei Ishida on the left wing in the only change to the starting XV.

Ireland will have benefited enormously from a lack of travel in the lead-up to this game, with the east coast city of Newcastle being just a two-hour drive north of Sydney, where they edged out Australia 33-31. They were immensely lucky to do so, with Wallabies kicker Ben Donaldson missing a match-winning shot or goal after time had expired, so there’ll still be plenty left to prove as they look to replicate their six-game winning streak across 2024 and 2025. 

As they look towards next year’s 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia, it looks as though head coach Andy Farrell is casting his net far and wide to fill key positions. As he looks to save his best and brightest for next weekend’s trip to New Zealand, Farrell has made ten changes to last week’s team, giving the likes of Robbie Henshaw, Sean Jensen and Jacob Stockdale opportunities to make their case for regular starting XV selection.

Head-to-Head History

Ireland made sure their shock 2019 World Cup loss to Japan was a one-off, winning the three subsequent matches by an aggregate score of 140-46. 

Hot Stats and Streaks

Japan covered the main spread in ten of their 13 games since the start of 2025.

Japan conceded 24+ points in all but one of their last 23 losses.

Ireland won all four games this year in which they scored the opening try.

The second half was the highest scoring half in four of Ireland’s six games this year. 

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

After he crossed the line against Italy, Japan will be hoping that Warner Dearns goes on a similar try scoring streak to that in 2025, where he recorded tries in four consecutive internationals. Ireland’s Jimmy O’Brien is never far away from the tryline on current form, scoring in five of his last eight games for club or country.

Japan remains without Lee Seung-sin, Yoshitaka Yazaki, Amato Fakatava and Faulua Makisi among others. Ireland added no new injuries last weekend with their rotations all being optional.

See the lineups and team news for the match here.

Betting Analysis

Last week’s results point towards Japan covering the +20.5 point spread here. 

Aaron Murphy has been with Flashscore since 2018 and, as the founding editor of the Australian newsdesk, has reported on-site at several major events in Melbourne including the Australian Open, State of Origin, A-League, NBL and international cricket. You can read his pieces here and contact him on X or LinkedIn.