A competitive showing could be all Wales needs to continue their rebuild

Match News and Current Form

South Africa have thus far proven why they’re large favourites to win the Nations Championship, as they boast a perfect record from their two games having beaten England 45-21 in Johannesburg and Scotland most recently 42-28 in Pretoria. The Springboks did finally show some vulnerabilities against the Scots, as a converted try in the 77th minute made the scoreline seem a lot more comfortable than it was, but up until then they did not have it their own way. Their supporters will argue the mark of a great team is one who finds a way to win even on an off day, and that’s exactly what they did, no doubt being largely helped by their home fans who cheered them to a 14th win in their last 15 home matches (L1).

Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus has stayed true to his word to give every player in his expanded squad some time in the green and gold jersey, and that’s especially true this week with four debutants in the starting XV. Prop Carlü Sadie and lock Ruben van Heerden make their test debuts and will be leaning on the experience brought by hooker and Men's 15s World Rugby Player of the Year Malcolm Marx, eighth man Jasper Wiese, and captain Pieter-Steph du Toit to show them the ropes. Amongst the backs, flyhalf Vusi Moyo and wing Jaco Williams are getting their caps, but are again balanced out by household names such as scrumhalf Cobus Reinach, wing Kurt-Lee Arendse, centres Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel, and fullback Aphelele Fassi.

Wales got their Nations Championship campaign off to a good start with a 39-24 win over Fiji, which was at the time their third win in succession after downing Italy 31-17 at the backend of the Six Nations before beating the Barbarians 33-31. Their last outing was less celebratory, losing 35-21 to Argentina in San Juan, but coach Steve Tandy has spoken confidently ahead of his side facing the world champions, underlining his priority for this week as “about putting our game out there … we want to see a real physical edge.” Getting physical with South Africa hardly seems like a good idea to most, but with Wales averaging two maul tries per match in the Nations Championship - the highest rate in the tournament - their confidence isn’t completely unfounded.

Tandy has made six changes from last week, with Dewi Lake retaining the captaincy in an unchanged front row. Teddy Williams comes in at lock to partner Adam Beard, with the other change in the pack seeing Alex Mann come in at flank. Amongst the backs, Dan Edwards comes in at flyhalf, Ben Thomas and Max Llewellyn form a new centre pairing, with the final change seeing Louis Rees-Zammit start on the wing.

Head-to-Head History

South Africa’s 73-0 demolition of Wales back in November means they’ve now won 36 of the 44 previous encounters (D1, L7), including 12 of the 13 played at home (L1).

Hot Stats and Streaks

South Africa have scored at least 32 points in nine of their last 11 games.

The second half produced more points than the first in 13 of South Africa’s last 17 matches.

Wales have covered the spread in five of their seven games this year.

Five of Wales’ seven matches this year cleared the total points handicap.

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

Springbok prop Gerhard Steenekamp might be good value in the try scorers market, since both of his international tries have come in his two appearances against Wales. Ironically, his opposite number Rhys Carré might be Wales’ biggest try-scoring threat too, since he’s scored against both Argentina and Fiji so far in the competition.

Eben Etzebeth, Franco Mostert, André Esterhuizen, Canan Moodie, Handrè Pollard, and Ox Nché are all unavailable for South Africa due to injuries. As for Wales, Ben Carter injured his ankle in training and Taine Plumtree is nursing a knock, while Ellis Mee and Sam Costelow have lost their spots in the matchday squad.

Click here to view the match squads and latest team news.

Betting Analysis

The visitors have scored at least 17 points in each of their last six games, and with a somewhat experimental Springbok side being put out, they might be able to get some points on the board. Our pick is Wales to score over 12.5 points.