South Africa will look to retain the Rugby Championship title for the first time when they take on Argentina at Twickenham in London on Saturday, and are in pole position heading into the final round of fixtures in this year’s competition.
A 67-30 victory over Argentina in Durban last week catapulted South Africa to the top of the table with 15 points and, perhaps crucially, a +55 points difference.
New Zealand are in second place with 14 points but have a -6 points-difference, with Australia in third on 11 points (+1 points difference).
All three of those teams are still in contention for the trophy, but Argentina’s nine points mean they are out the running and this weekend have the role of spoilers only.
Australia host New Zealand in Perth in the first game on Saturday, meaning the Springboks will know exactly what they need to do when they kick-off against Argentina at 14h00 London time (13h00 GMT).
South Africa won their fifth Rugby Championship title in 2024 but have never gone back-to-back in the southern hemisphere competition.
Here is a look at the permutations ahead of Saturday’s games:
* South Africa will lift the trophy with a bonus-point victory over Argentina no matter what happens in Perth between Australia and New Zealand.
* If New Zealand get a bonus-point win and South Africa collect four points for a victory without a bonus-point, it will come down to points difference. The Springboks’ +55 and the All Blacks’ -6 mean it would require a massive, highly improbable swing in that regard.
* If Argentina win, a victory of any sort for New Zealand would see the All Blacks crowned champions.
* If Australia win with a bonus-point then realistically they need Argentina to win and deny the Springboks a bonus-point or the Wallabies will face the same issue with their +1 points difference.
* If South Africa and Argentina draw, without the Springboks earning a try-scoring bonus-point, then victory for New Zealand would see them crowned champions. If it is a draw in London with a bonus-point for South Africa, then New Zealand would likely need a bonus-point win due to their inferior points-difference.
* If New Zealand and Australia draw without bonus points, then the former would need Argentina to win and deny South Africa one. A draw in Perth with a bonus-point for New Zealand would mean an Argentina win, restricting South Africa to a single bonus-point, would see the All Blacks crowned champions.