The Springboks will be overwhelming favourites, but those who were at the Brighton Community Stadium during the 2015 Rugby World Cup a decade earlier know the chance of an upset is always there.
It was shaping up to be a scare but not much more for the mighty Springboks when the Japanese launched their final attack at Brighton’s new stadium in their opening Pool B game of the competition.
Leading 32-29 after flyhalf Handre Pollard had kicked over a penalty, the Boks needed only to see off a last Japanese attempt to claim victory.
But the minnows had other ideas. They twice opted not to kick penalties that would have earned them a draw, instead kicking for the touchline and line-out advantage. Cheeky but bold is what most observers thought, but the energy at the Brighton Community Stadium gave them belief.
The clock was already past 80 minutes when they scrummed down before carrying the ball to the left flank, only to have their way blocked. Then they tried to drive it through the middle with the forwards but made little ground as the South African side, down to 14 after the yellow card to Coenie Oosthuizen, held firm.
Suddenly Japan switched the ball out to the right and captain Michael Leitch made a surge for the line only to be snagged by Adriaan Strauss two metres out. Then the ball went left and two longer passes caught out the Boks and allowed replacement wing Karne Hesketh, who had only just come on, to squeeze over.
Biggest World Cup upset
The 34-32 triumph was immediately hailed as the biggest upset in rugby history, met with furious celebration across a frenzied ground. Japan fed off the energy of the crowd and, after their lap of honour, the whole squad bowed in front of the main stand to recognise the support within the ground.
It was a massive result for Japan, especially given they were to host the World Cup four years later, and solidified the maverick reputation of coach Eddie Jones, who said: "It's quite incredible. We thought we could compete, but to beat South Africa is a fantastic achievement for the team, and it's a great day for Japanese rugby.”
Japan, however, lost their next game to Scotland 45-10 and ended third in the pool despite winning three of their four games, like South Africa and Scotland, who had added bonus points to see them through to the quarter-finals.
Japan’s win over the Boks was made even more significant by the fact that they were up against the most experienced Test side South Africa had ever fielded, with 851 caps in the starting XV.
The Springboks went on to the semi-final and exited after a narrow two-point loss to New Zealand’s All Blacks, but the overall tournament performance cost coach Heyneke Meyer his job and ushered in a rebuild of the team, who have dominated the World Cup ever since.
Taking no chances
Several Springboks this week have spoken of the danger of Japan and while none featured in that game, it is a match that has been imprinted on the South African psyche never to take anything for granted.
Centre Damian de Allende, who plays his club rugby in Japan, knows what to expect.
“We’ve been preparing this week for a fast game – that’s the way the Japanese team want to play the game – but we want to play our brand of rugby and we want to make sure that we play on our terms,” he said.
“It’s going to be exciting, it’s going to be physical and they’ve obviously got stuck into Australia over the weekend. Those of us who play in Japan always tell the other South African guys that the league here is not easy and it’s very tough.”
Scrumhalf Grant Williams expects much the same and is also looking forward to playing at Wembley.
“I’m really looking forward to playing against Japan,” Williams said. “I know they play really fast, especially the venue we’re playing at on Saturday – it’s a fast pitch and my first time playing at Wembley, so I’m looking forward to it.
“They are really good, and really fast. We had a look at them, and it’s going to be really hard for us if we don’t slow down their ball.”
De Allende’s centre partner Jesse Kriel, who also plays in Japan, says getting their tour off to a good start is crucial, with tough games in France and Ireland to come.
“There’s going to be a massive battle in the air and at the breakdown. Those two points will really decide this game,” he said.
“(Starting well is) everything for us. We’ve spoken about it quite a bit this week, it’s a very important game to get our campaign off to a good start. We haven’t looked any further than this game, and with the team selection it shows that we’re serious.”
Eddie’s ready
Jones knows exactly what to expect from the Springboks on Saturday and the fine line between success and failure will be over whether his side can counter what they know is coming.
“I don’t think it’s any secret when you’re playing against South Africa, and they don’t make it a secret,” Jones said on the Rugby Unity podcast.
“They get 30m from your line, two forwards come around the same way and you know it’s coming – you’ve just got to be good enough to stop it.
“You’ve got to be able to neutralise the high ball and if you can stop those two parts, you will give yourselves a chance of winning the game. When you get possession, you’ve got to be accurate and you’ve got to be sharp.
“They give you opportunities to attack. They play a half-blitz defence where the winger can come in from the 15m to close at the near post, so you’ve either got to try to play through that, or play over it.
“We’ll try to find a way to break that down and give it a red-hot go.”