Banyana Banyana's Group B permutations at WAFCON ahead of crunch clash with Burkina Faso

It is a do-or-die contest for Banyana Banyana, who cannot finish top of the pool and have only second place available to them after failing to win either of their opening two matches.

Victory over Burkina Faso will not necessarily be enough, though they will progress if Ivory Coast beat Tanzania in their fixture played at the same time.

If South Africa win and the other game ends in a draw, then both Banyana Banayna and Tanzania will be on four points, but the East Africans will lead on head-to-head.

If Banyana Banyana and Tanzania win, then both they and Ivory Coast will be on four points and it will come down to goal-difference. Banyana are on -1 and Ivory Coast +3, so it would need a big swing.  

There is no margin for error, with a draw or defeat certain to end their hopes of advancing to the knockout stages.

That in turn would end their chances of reaching the 2027 Women’s World Cup in Brazil, which would have been the minimum goal coming into the tournament in Morocco.

The four semi-finalists at the continental qualifiers automatically book their berth at the global finals, while two of the losing quarter-finalists will enter FIFA’s inter-continental play-offs.

A group stage exit and it would be the end of the road for coach Des Ellis’ side, and throw her future into doubt after a loss to Tanzania and a last-gasp come-from-behind draw with Ivory Coast. 

Burkina Faso will progress with either a win or a draw against South Africa, so may be inclined to sit back and absorb the pressure.

They could also finish as group winners if they defeat Banyana Banyana and Ivory Coast fail to beat Tanzania.

Ivory Coast are well placed to qualify and will finish top of the group with either a win or a draw against Tanzania, provided Burkina Faso do not defeat South Africa.

Draws in both matches would see Ivory Coast finish as group winners and Burkina Faso claim second place, eliminating both South Africa and Tanzania.

Tanzania also have their fate in their own hands and will progress with victory over Ivory Coast.

They could advance with a draw if Burkina Faso fail to beat South Africa, while a win would see them finish top of the pool if the Burkinabe also fail to take all three points.

Banyana Banyana have only twice before failed to reach the knockout stages at the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations, in 1998 and 2004.

They have been defensively suspect in this tournament and also lacked their usual cutting edge up front, two factors they will need to put right against the Burkinabe. 

Their easiest path through remains a win and victory for the Ivory Coast.