Muut

Bayern need to reverse history against Inter if they want to progress in the Champions League

The Allianz Arena, bathed in red lighting, and pictured from above, will host this season's Champions League final.
The Allianz Arena, bathed in red lighting, and pictured from above, will host this season's Champions League final.firo Sportphoto/Christian Kaspar / augenklick/firo Sportphoto / dpa Picture-Alliance via AFP / Profimedia
Tuesday night sees a real battle of European heavyweights as Bayern Munich take on Internazionale at the Allianz Arena, the stadium which will host this year's Champions League final.

Both teams are in sensational domestic form and lead the Bundesliga and Serie A tables respectively, with the Bavarians having a six-point lead over nearest pursuers, Bayer Leverkusen, and the Nerazzurri a slender three points ahead of Napoli.

Just one loss in the last 15 games in all competitions for Vincent Kompany's side compares to two defeats for Simone Inzaghi's men, indicating how difficult an assignment this two-legged quarter-final could be for both teams. 

Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona will almost certainly be watching on with interest ahead of their own battle on Wednesday, given that the winners of their tie will play either Bayern or Inter at the semi-final stage.

Tuesday night's match will be the 10th meeting between the German and Italian giants in European competition, with Bayern winning five of the previous nine (D1 L3) including the last time they faced each other in the Champions League (2-0 wins home and away in the 2022/23 group stage).

Inter hold the edge over Bayern in the UCL knockout stages

Although Inter have lost four of their seven games against Bayern in the competition (W2 D1), they have eliminated the Bavarians in both of their meetings in the knockout stages of the competition: 2-0 in the 2009/10 final and progressing on away goals over two legs in 2010/11 in the last 16 (3-3 on aggregate).

They will have to be at their very best in the first leg, however, as Bayern are unbeaten in their last 22 home matches in the Champions League (W17 D5). The last visiting side to beat them in the competition was actually Paris Saint-Germain back in April 2021 (3-2 in the quarter-final first leg).

Solidity in defence may well be something that Inzaghi looks towards from his squad as, of the teams to have played 10+ matches in a single European Cup/Champions League campaign, Inter’s clean sheet percentage (80%) in 2024/25 is the highest of any side in a single season (eight clean sheets in 10 matches).

Harry Kane, Michael Olise and others will have to be on their game because they're likely to find that chances are at a premium as Inter go looking for another shutout or two.

Harry Kane celebrates a goal for Bayern against Augsburg on April 4, 2025
Harry Kane celebrates a goal for Bayern against Augsburg on April 4, 2025ČTK / imago sportfotodienst / Frank Hoermann/SVEN SIMON

Kane has now been directly involved in 50 goals in 55 games in the Champions League (39 goals, 11 assists), including 12 in 11 outings this season. 

Only Robert Lewandowski has had a hand in more in a single campaign for Bayern Munich (20 in 2019-20, 16 in 2021-22), evidencing just how well England's captain has taken to life in Germany.

For a player that has yet to win a trophy at senior level, he could end the 24/25 campaign with two if Bayern can hold their nerve in the league and overcome all challengers in Europe.

His goals are so regular arguably because Bayern have averaged more high-intensity pressures in the final third per game than any other team in the Champions League this season (121.8). 

In fact, their average of 12.8 high turnovers per game in the competition this term is the highest by any side since Bayern themselves in the 2021/22 season (13.2).

Kane's passing accuracy of 80.1% is decent enough as a standalone metric too, but when you consider that only Thomas Muller has a worse pass completion (78.1%) of those players who could be considered regulars, Inter are going to have to work hard just to get hold of the ball.

Inter's Lautaro Martinez celebrates against Monza on March 8, 2025.
Inter's Lautaro Martinez celebrates against Monza on March 8, 2025.Alessio Morgese/E-Mage / Alamy / Profimedia

The visitors do have their own in-form hit-man in Lautaro Martinez, who has netted six goals in nine UCL appearances this season.

That's the most by any Inter player in a single campaign since Samuel Eto’o in 2010/11 (8), the Cameroonian's last goal that season coming away at Bayern Munich in the Round of 16.

It isn't just up front where the game could be won either.

Kimmich could dictate the destiny of this tie

Bayern’s Joshua Kimmich has completed 1,015 passes in the competition this season, which is the most by a player in a single edition since 2013/14 (1,080 by Toni Kroos and 1,020 by Xavi). He's also created more chances (35) and made more line-breaking passes (201) than any other midfielder this term.

If Inter give him time and space to dictate the pace and pattern of the game, there's a strong likelihood that the Italians will get punished.

Joshua Kimmich pass map vs Celtic
Joshua Kimmich pass map vs CelticOpta by Stats Perform

However, the visitors will also be looking at other areas of the pitch from which to cause problems for their opponents.

Across the last three Champions League campaigns, PSG stalwart and former Inter player Achraf Hakimi (8) is the only full back/wing back to have assisted more goals than Inter’s Federico Dimarco (6). All six of his assists have been for different players too (Dzeko, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Correa, Martinez, Thuram).

Therefore, with both teams having real quality in all areas, it's difficult to pick a winner from the tie, and it wouldn't even be a surprise if penalties were needed to decide who is going to progress.

Bayern will surely be itching to right the wrong of 2012, which was the last time that the Champions League final was played in front of their own fans, but they came up short against Chelsea.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore