PSG and Arsenal are hoping to make their second-ever Champions League final on Wednesday, with the winner of the decider in the French capital meeting Inter Milan in the showpiece.
However, Les Parisiens will have a few clubs supporting them in the match, none more so than the Greek champions Olymipakos. Should PSG advance, then the 2023/24 UEFA Conference League winners will enter the UCL league phase next fall without having to play in qualifying.
Why is that so? It is simple: PSG, like Inter, have already qualified for the Champions League via their domestic league. It is worth noting that the winner of the UCL is awarded a spot in the competition's league phase the following season. Since both Inter and PSG will be playing there next season, should either of them lift the trophy in Munich, a vacancy would open up in the league phase.
As per UEFA's regulations, whenever the Champions League titleholder qualifies for the league phase via their domestic league, the vacated place is given to the domestic champion with the highest five-year UEFA coefficient not to have automatically qualified for that stage.
This is where Olympiakos come in. Thrylos captured their 48th Greek Super League last month, and are already assured to be the highest-ranked domestic champion to enter the UCL's qualifying rounds. As a result, they are in line to claim any vacancy in the league phase caused by the defending champions. That would see them qualify for the competition's league phase for the first time in six years.
Should this happen, Olympiakos' spot in the second qualifying round would be vacated. Filling this spot would be two teams initially due to enter the first qualifying round. These two sides are also confirmed: Qarabag of Azerbaijan, and Slovakia's Slovan Bratislava. They would start their summer one round later, meaning they would have to progress from just one tie to be assured a league phase spot.
Arsenal nearing Champions League via Premier League
But what about Arsenal? Why would the Gunners losing be such a good thing? Well, the first reason is simple: they have not yet assured themselves a spot in the UCL league phase via the Premier League. They are currently second behind the champions Liverpool.
England will have at least five places in the Champions League proper next season, due to them winning the UEFA single-season coefficient ranking. That earned them an extra spot, allowing the top five teams in the league to qualify.
Mikel Arteta's men can finish as low as seventh in the league, albeit rather unlikely. In fact, Arsenal can wrap up a top-five finish next weekend. In the unlikely scenario where they finish sixth or seventh and win the UCL, there would not be any vacancy in the competition, as the North London club would take that titleholder place. England would instead lose a Europa League berth, or their Conference League spot.
What if Arsenal finished fifth in the Premier League and won the Champions League? This is where things get interesting. UEFA's regulations mention that titleholder rebalancing - promoting clubs due to vacancies caused by the UCL, UEL, or UECL titleholder - are applied first before awarding the extra Champions League spot.
This means that without the added UCL place, the fifth place team in England qualifies for the UEL proper. In this case, that berth would be vacated, with titleholder rebalancing occurs in the Europa League, due to Arsenal qualifying for the UCL as the competition's winners.
That extra Champions League spot would then go to the sixth place team in England, currently Nottingham Forest, as the highest-ranked team in the league not to have qualified for the UCL.
Long story short, Arsenal finishing outside of the top four and winning the Champions League would not benefit Olympiakos, Slovan Bratislava, and Qarabag. Instead, other sides would end up taking advantage of that.
While Arsenal are almost certain to finish in the top four of the Premier League, Olympiakos and co would love to be assured of a league phase place. That could be confirmed on Wednesday, though they will need some help from PSG.