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Black Star Watch: Ernest Nuamah to score more goals as his shot selection improves

Nuamah celebrates his goal for Lyon
Nuamah celebrates his goal for LyonValery HACHE / AFP / AFP / Profimedia
Ernest Nuamah reminded the world of his talent on Sunday after scoring a stunning long-range goal against Nice to give Lyon a 2-0 win in Ligue 1.

Picking up the ball near the centre circle, the Ghanaian winger surged forward before curling a brilliant effort past goalkeeper Marcin Bulka.

It was his first goal from outside the box this season after 12 attempts, highlighting the difficulty of scoring from distance, where precision and shot quality are paramount.

Often, the shot has to be extremely precise to be able to beat a goalkeeper from distance. Historically, the closer you are to the goal, the higher your chances of scoring. 

This is why the Expected Goals (xG) model places a lot of significance on the distance from goal the shot was taken.

Generally, a lot of high volume scorers shoot more in the penalty area/six yard box. For some time now, that has been a shortfall of Nuamah.

He has struggled to generate xG while at Lyon and that has affected his goal tally. Despite attempting 43 shots in Ligue 1 last season, he only generated an xG of 4, which he underperformed after scoring 3.

Nuamah shot map last season
Nuamah shot map last seasonOpta

This season, there has been slight improvements as he is shooting closer to goal with the average distance from goal for all shots taken currently at 16.8 yards compared to last season’s 18.0 yards.

Nuamah shot map this season
Nuamah shot map this seasonOpta

Despite these strides, Nuamah still faces challenges with his shot quality and positioning. His xG per shot remains at 0.09, indicating room for improvement in creating higher-quality chances closer to goal. 

Nuamah stats last season
Nuamah stats last seasonOpta

For context, teammate Rayan Cherki - who has taken just four more shots - boasts double Nuamah’s goals this season with an xG per shot of 0.15.

Nuamah has also had only three big chances this season and just 49 touches in the penalty area out of 545 total touches in Ligue 1.

Nuamah stats this season
Nuamah stats this seasonOpta

To improve xG per shot, Nuamah can focus on moving centrally into dangerous areas in the penalty box where shots are most likely scored just like the goal he scored against Nantes.

Also movement off the ball and working on his first touch to either create space or manoeuvre tight areas can improve xG per shot. Nuamah executed this to perfection for his goal against Montpellier and most importantly played a shot with a good angle; a wider angle to the goal, reducing the goalkeeper's ability to make a save.

The Ghanaian has the quality to execute these actions in order to improve his goal tally, but it has to be on a consistent basis.

While his shot accuracy (41.7%) has dipped slightly compared to last season (46.5%), he has already equalled last season’s goal tally of three with 19 fewer shots, showing progress in efficiency.

This is evident in his goals per shot on target of 0.30, which is twice last season’s number, suggesting that when his shots are on target this season, there is a higher likelihood of them scoring.

Perhaps in Nuamah’s quest for precision, he is shooting off target more, highlighted in the fact that he’s already hit the bar twice this season.

Nuamah’s overall performance reflects steady improvement under new coach Paulo Fonseca. Before Fonseca’s arrival, he had just one goal and no assists in 14 appearances.

Since then, in six matches (four starts), he has scored twice, assisted once, and matched his previous tally of five shots on target in far fewer games. His dribbling has also improved significantly, completing nine under Fonseca compared to six before.

This enhanced confidence and improved decision-making suggest that Nuamah is poised for even greater success as he continues to adapt to Fonseca's tactical approach at Lyon.

The Black Star Watch is a compelling weekly column written by Owuraku Ampofo, a seasoned sports journalist with over five years of experience reporting on Ghanaian players. This column aims to uncover patterns, address pressing questions, and illuminate trending topics surrounding Ghanaian footballers.

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