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Why Arsenal should tread carefully if they decide to sign Monza sensation Gustavo Varela

Monza's Gustavo Varela celebrates after scoring vs Cagliari
Monza's Gustavo Varela celebrates after scoring vs Cagliari Sportimage, Sportimage Ltd / Alamy / Profimedia

If there's one transfer that's almost certain to occur in next summer's transfer window, if not before, it will be the sale of Viktor Gyokeres by Arsenal.

Though he was the top scorer in the Premier League for the Gunners last season with 14 goals, it's his all-round play that's let him down.

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Varela a replacement for Gyokeres?

For example, when the Swedish international came on in the week against Bayern Munich, he had just one touch in the Bavarians' box - albeit a good one as it set up Declan Rice for a late equaliser.

Just 12 total touches in 25+ minutes of football was in keeping with what he's produced before, but that just isn't good enough at this level.

It's perhaps with his suitability - or lack of it - in mind that it would appear the North Londoners are willing to find the centre-forward a new home.

If they're able to do just that, then he will need to be replaced, of course.

One of the players that is in Mikel Arteta's crosshairs is Monza's Gustavo Varela, according to trusted Italian media.

Eight goals in seven games

With eight goals in seven games already this season, it's little wonder that there is huge interest around the 21-year-old Portuguese hitman.

The Gunners might well have competition from Varela's former club, Benfica, who apparently blame the player's representatives for forcing through the move to Serie A - where a number of other suitors lay in wait for the right moment to make their interest known.

Gustavo Varela's 2026/27 numbers - Serie A only
Gustavo Varela's 2026/27 numbers - Serie A onlyFlashscore

It seems incomprehensible that Monza paid just €2m for his services, though Benfica do have the option to match any future offer for Varela.

If he decides not to return, then the Eagles could be set to benefit financially, given that they negotiated a 20% sell-on clause.

In order to make money from any deal, Monza would therefore have to put a hefty price tag on the player, and they remain in the box seat for any negotiations, given that Varela has signed with them until 2030.

Another move likely for Varela

Though any interest from other clubs is still in the exploratory stages, it does appear to be a foregone conclusion that Varela won't be plying his trade at the Stadio Brianteo after this season.

Aside from his goals this season, how do the other facets of his game match up?

Looking at his loan spell at Gil Vicente (2025/26), Varela made 39 total appearances, 22 of which he started.

His total of seven goals (and four assists) is not a bad return for a player of his youth and relative lack of top-flight experience, and should only be seen as a positive.

Superb shot accuracy

A 63.64% shot accuracy in Serie A is an improvement on the 58.97% he posted last season in the Primeira Liga, though his 66.67% return in the Coppa Italia is his best return to date.

His Coppa Italia conversion rate is also at an insane 66.67%, and even his 42.86% in the Italian top flight is impressive. Of the 68 total shots taken, 33 have been on target, with 14 more blocked.

Gustavo Varela's career numbers
Gustavo Varela's career numbersFlashscore

A 78.16% pass completion (Serie A) for a main striker isn't awful, and is another area where he has improved since his move from Portugal (71.03% with Gil Vicente). For those passes played in his own half, his return is even better (92.59%).

In terms of his physicality, he'll need to improve on that if he wants to be a success moving forward.

Big improvements required elsewhere

Gyokeres could at least be relied upon to win his one-on-ones thanks to his strength and ability to hold off his opposite number.

Varela can only boast a best return of 42.04% in this regard, and that's dropped alarmingly to 28.81% this season, with only 17 of his 59 duels won.

Aerially, he hasn't fared much better, with just seven one-on-ones successful from 26 attempted.

Gustavo Varela's recent player ratings
Gustavo Varela's recent player ratingsFlashscore

Little attention should be paid to his tackling success, too, as despite having a perfect 100% return since moving to Italy, and a 75% showing in Portugal, the striker has actually only attempted 10 tackles in total since the start of the 2025/26 season.

His xG has also dropped significantly, from 7.54% in the Primeira Liga to just 3.03% in Serie A.  

Therefore, if Arsenal or any other club do intend to avail themselves of his services, they'll be more than aware that a big improvement is needed from Varela if he wants to be regarded as a success.

Jason Pettigrove has been the features writer for Flashscore since 2025, utilising Opta data to form the basis of his articles. He has previously worked for high-profile football clubs, news and media outlets, both in print and digital, and can usually be found watching FC Barcelona when time permits. You can read more of his pieces here.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore
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