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We've arrived at the third and final round of fixtures from the FIFA World Cup 2026 group stages.
The United States haven't put a foot wrong so far, winning each of their previous two games, bagging the six points needed to top Group D. Turkey have lost each of their two starts, meaning they'll finish bottom and head for home in the coming days.
Will the locals make it three wins from three, or will the Turks finally give their fans something to cheer and sign off with an impressive win? Trusted football betting analyst Frank Monkhouse offers his in-depth preview and three predictions inspired by the stats.
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Turkey vs USA tips
Both teams to score @ -158 (fanduel) | -150 (betmgm)
USA win @ -110 (fanduel) | -110 (betmgm)
Tillman to score anytime @ +300 (fanduel) | +320 (betmgm)
This article contains affiliate links to advertisers. The analysis is our own. Age, location and other restrictions apply. Please play responsibly.
Both teams to score - Yes
With nothing to play for here, Turkey vs USA could pass without incident.
The Stars and Stripes may opt to rest a few of their regular starters, handing game time to squad members. With Turkey winless in two and facing the fury of their fans, confidence will be low, and they may stumble to another defeat.
Predicting how teams will play in round three is no simple task, but we must trust they'll be professional. Thankfully, the head-to-head stats now available on the Flashscore app give bettors a clear trend to follow, and it's one that got me excited.
Turkey and the USA have met five times previously, with each nation grabbing two wins each. What caught my eye when studying the H2H is that both teams scored in each of those five games. That's good enough for me, and I advise adding BTTS to your accas. It'll help boost the potential returns, and backers can then enjoy the match on TV.
Armchair fans looking for a play at greater odds will be interested to learn that 2-1 was the final score in each of the last four meetings.
Tip: Both teams to score @ -158 (fanduel) | -150 (betmgm)
Bet explanation: The match-winner isn't important here. You need the USA and Turkey to score at least one goal each in Friday's clash.
Match winner - USA
I jump down from the fence for my second pick, taking the United States to beat Turkey in the match winner betting market.
When following this pick, it doesn't matter who scores the goals and when they arrive. As long as the USA end as winners, finishing the group with a maximum of nine points, you'll secure a profit.
Let's check on both teams' form in the United States this month.
The USA have two wins from two, with six goals scored, and one conceded.
Turkey start down in fourth, and will end at the bottom of the pile, regardless of what happens at the SoFi Stadium. The Crescent-Stars have played two, lost two, scored no goals, and conceded three.
The form, past meetings, and current mood in Vincenzo Montella's team all point towards another win for the USA.
Tip: USA win @ -110 (fanduel) | -110 (betmgm)
Bet explanation: If the USA beat Turkey, you'll beat the bookies.
Anytime Goalscorer - Tillman
As is often the case when providing big-match previews and predictions to Flashscore's global audience, I like to sign off with a pick at higher odds.
In this case, I flag up the value on Malik Tillman to score at least once against Turkey.
The outcome of Tillman scoring won't affect your bet. As long as Tillman scores once in Inglewood, you'll beat the bookies and land a profit. It's easy to follow and has a fair chance of landing.
Let's take a closer look at how Tillman has been performing this season for the United States and club side Bayer Leverkusen in Germany.
The 24-year-old attacking midfielder scored eight goals for club and country this term. Malik bagged Bundesliga goals against Werder Bremen, Borussia Monchengladbach, Wolfsburg, Frankfurt, and Heidenheim. He also scored in the UEFA Champions League against Villarreal.
Tillman started the games against Paraguay and Australia, meaning he's likely to feature from the start against Turkey. Malik is reliable in defence and gets around the pitch, but he's most impressive when going forward.
Backers can expect our pick to win the ball in his own half and then get the USA into advanced positions. From there, he has the quality to shoot for goal.
The former Glasgow Rangers man is a nice price to score at least one goal during the game against Turkey.
Tip: Tillman to score anytime @ +300 (fanduel) | +320 (betmgm)
Bet explanation: Malik Tillman must score at least one goal in the USA vs Turkey match from California.
Turkey vs USA odds
Turkey win @ +260 (fanduel) | +250 (betmgm)
Draw @ +300 (fanduel) | +280 (betmgm)
USA win @ -110 (fanduel) | -110 (betmgm)
This article contains affiliate links to advertisers. The analysis is our own. Age, location and other restrictions apply. Please play responsibly.