2026 World Cup: Best and worse scenarios for Sweden ahead of tomorrow's draw

Sweden players ahead of their final qualifier in November
Sweden players ahead of their final qualifier in NovemberJOEL MARKLUND / Bildbyran Photo Agency / Profimedia

It's a FIFA World Cup draw like no other for Sweden, whose qualification campaign has been nothing short of a disaster, yet they still have ambitions of making it to North America for the 2026 World Cup next summer.

Following four matches without a win in their group, Sweden sacked head coach Jon Dahl Tomasson and replaced him with Graham Potter, who oversaw one draw and one loss in the final two qualifiers, as Blagult finished bottom of Group B.

Sweden were expected to be Switzerland's main challengers for first place in the group, especially after an excellent UEFA Nations League (UNL) campaign a few months earlier, but only two points meant they finished below Kosovo and Slovenia, and 12 points short of Switzerland's total.

Yet, it is that UNL record that has kept the dream of World Cup qualification alive for the Swedes, who earned a place in the Playoffs as one of the four best UNL group winners not to finish in the top two of a World Cup qualifying group.

The Playoffs

In March, Sweden will have to put their terrible form behind them and win two matches in a row to reach the World Cup.

Last month, Potter's side were drawn into Path B, where they will face Ukraine in the Semi-finals. Should they emerge victorious, they will meet the winner of Poland vs Albania for a place in the finals.

With the war in Ukraine ongoing, the Semi-final will be played on neutral territory, while the final - should Sweden make it - will be played at Strawberry Arena in Solna, home advantage that Sweden will want to make full use of.

Having missed the 2022 edition in Qatar, the 1958 runners-up are seeking their first appearance at the finals since exiting the 2018 Quarter-finals to England.

Sweden last featured in the World Cup in 2018
Sweden last featured in the World Cup in 2018Atsushi Tokumaru / AFLO / Profimedia

The Draw

The draw will take place tomorrow (5th December) at the Kennedy Center in Washington D.C, United States, at 18:00 CET. 

The name "Sweden" will not be drawn during the ceremony, instead, Sweden fans will be looking out for "UEFA Path B Winner". 

The teams have been split into four pots of seeds - the majority of the 48 teams have been seeded according to the FIFA World Rankings, with the highest-ranked teams in Pot 1 and the lowest-ranked in Pot 4.

The exceptions to this are the three host nations, who are all in Pot 1, plus the four UEFA Playoff winners and the two Inter-Confederation Playoff winners, who are all in Pot 4. The teams will be drawn into 12 groups of four teams each.

This makes things tougher for 43rd-ranked Sweden, who are guaranteed to be drawn into a group with at least two sides ranked higher than them, should they qualify.

Best-case scenario

Sweden fans may not want to get ahead of themselves - either because they don't want to tempt fate, or because they don't have any hope of winning their Playoff path - but tomorrow's draw will reveal what prize awaits them if they make it.

Based on the World Rankings (in brackets), the following group will be the best Sweden can hope for:

1. Canada (27)

2. Australia (26)

3. South Africa (61)

4. Sweden (43)

It's never easy playing against a host nation, but with Canada ranked 27th, considerably lower than any other Pot 1 side, they are a much less daunting prospect than any other top seeds.

Canada failed to make it out of the group on their previous two World Cup appearances, while South Africa are yet to reach the knockout stages either after three appearances. Australia have made it to the Round of 16 twice, including in 2022, but got no further.

This scenario would mean Sweden are featuring in Group B, which Canada are pre-determined to be in. The fixture with the Canadians would be played in either Toronto or Vancouver, while another Group B match is scheduled for Seattle, thus giving Blagult the chance to play two matches in a cooller climate.

Worst-case scenario

Deciding what would be the most challenging set of Group Stage opponents for the Swedes is not as clear-cut.

According to the rankings alone, the toughest group for Sweden would be:

1. Spain (1)

2 Morocco (11)

3. Panama (30)

4. Sweden (43)

Given that no more than two European teams can feature in the same group, drawing Spain would see Sweden avoid the highest-ranked teams in Pots 2 and 3, namely Croatia (11) and Norway (29). Yet this scenario still creates an average ranking of 14 for their three opponents.

There is, however, a second set of potential opponents who also have an average ranking of 14, and it is up to Sweden fans to decide which would be worse:

1. Argentina (2)

2. Croatia (10)

3. Panama (30)

4. Sweden (43)

World champions Argentina or European champions Spain? 2022 World Cup semi-finalists Croatia or fellow 2022 World Cup semi-finalists Morocco? It's Sophie's choice for Sweden.

And what about meeting high-flying, free-scoring neighbours Norway? This is the toughest group that could play host to an all-Scandinavian derby that Sweden could surely do without:

1. Argentina (2)

2. Morocco (11)

3. Norway (29)

4. Sweden (43)

What will be Sweden's fate if they make it through the Playoffs? A group of death? A group of dreams? Or something in between? Find out by following tomorrow's draw (18:00 CET) on Flashscore.