In regard to one statistic, the Spaniard boasts a 92.3% success rate, while the Italian stands at zero. What is the key strength of the world number one that also happens to be his main rival’s biggest weakness?
The rivalry between the two brightest young stars on the men’s tour is extremely close in many respects. When it comes to various numbers and statistics, it’s hard to find an area where one dominates and the other lags far behind.
Surprisingly, though, even between the world’s number one and two, there can be a huge difference in some aspects.
This concerns the win-rate of matches that lasted longer than three hours and fifty minutes. Alcaraz leads this category with a 92.3% success rate.
The Spaniard has won 12 out of 13 such lengthy encounters, including a recent five-and-a-half-hour battle in the Australian Open semi-finals against Alexander Zverev.
Against Sinner, he’s come out on top in all three of their head-to-head battles lasting over four hours - at the French Open both last year and the year before, and at the 2022 US Open.
The only marathon match the Spaniard has lost came early in his career. Four years ago, in the third round in Melbourne, he fell to another Italian, Matteo Berrettini, in a fifth-set tiebreak.
For Sinner, on the other hand, gruelling, drawn-out battles have proven to be a major weakness. In his career, he has failed to win any of his nine matches of this kind.
In addition to three losses to his Spanish rival, he’s also come up short against Denis Shapovalov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev, Zverev, Daniel Altmaier, and, most recently, in this year’s Melbourne semi-final, against Novak Djokovic.
This statistic, which Djokovic was undoubtedly aware of, played a significant role in his surprising victory, as the 38-year-old Serb managed the four-hour-plus duel better. Sinner once again showed that long matches are not his forte, often faltering at moments when he needs to close out a win.
Against the Serb, he led two sets to one but failed to convert any of his eight break points in the deciding set. Djokovic, meanwhile, capitalised on his very first opportunity on return.
Sinner’s collapse was even more dramatic in last year’s epic French Open final against Alcaraz, where he squandered three consecutive match points at 5-3 in the fourth set.