Geelong v Hawthorn (Friday, 7:50pm AEST)
Between the time that the Cats and Hawks dominated the Premiership cycle with a combined seven of the nine flags won between 2007 and 2015, it was almost a guarantee that a match between these two sides was going to be tight.
That was again the case earlier this year when the Cats won by seven points after getting out to a 23-point lead during the second quarter.
This time around it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Hawks, who were far too good for the Crows in Adelaide last week, gain an early advantage after taking a quarter-time lead into nine of their last 11 matches including each of the last seven.
Geelong have been similarly imperious starters, leading at the first change in seven of their last nine matches, but against some much weaker opposition along the way.
They tore Brisbane to shreds from the outset in their qualifying final but are unlikely to have it their way against a side that hasn’t conceded more than three first quarter goals since losing to Collingwood in late May.
That’s why backing the Hawks to lead at quarter time as outsiders could be of some value, whilst for the total points market we’ll be following the trend that has seen Hawthorn’s last nine matches at the MCG fail to clear the total points handicap. Considering Hawthorn sees an average of 162 points per game this year, under 165.5 with the potential for showers is appealing.
Coleman Medallist Jeremy Cameron and Jack Gunston, who kicked 3+goals in seven of his last eight games and 2.2 v Brisbane in the other, are understandably the two most popular picks amongst the endless goalscorer markets and both are in outstanding form.
Match prediction: Under 165.5 total points
Best value: Hawthorn wins 1st quarter
Player prediction: Jack Gunston 3+ goals
Collingwood v Brisbane (Saturday, 5:15pm AEST)
Speaking of Brisbane, they’re carrying a line of just +5.5 points into a rematch of last year’s Grand Final after redeeming themselves with a dominant Q-Clash semi-final display.
Chris Fagan’s men rarely put two bad performances together and certainly made us look silly last week with the 53-point margin that has condemned their qualifying final aberration to history.
The Lions appear to play their best footy with their backs against the wall and the critics amassing, such as last season’s run to the premiership when they had been written off in the second half of the campaign, and this year they hold an excellent 4-1 record as betting outsiders.
Recent history could even repeat itself here with Brisbane following up their previous Q-Clash with a commanding 27-point win over the Magpies at the MCG.
You could combine a Brisbane victory in a same game multi with our strongest pick for this week, which is for this game to also fall under the total points handicap of 162.5.
70% of Collingwood’s games has finished ‘unders’ this season, including eight of their last eight, as have 65% of those involving the Lions throughout the year.
Our player prop selection this week goes not to the goalscorers but to the disposal markets, where we have identified a great price on Bet365 compared with the rest of the country.
For a man who has cleared 20+ disposals in nine consecutive games, Jaspa Fletcher at 1.65 to do so again is an excellent price and one you should take.
Match prediction: Under 162.5 total points
Player prediction: Jaspa Fletcher 20+ disposals
Suggested multi: Brisbane win / under 162.5 points